There are four broad categories of ways Trump will leave the office of the presidency. The first three are pleasant to contemplate because it means Trump will be permanently and blessedly gone from our lives. The last is the ultimate nightmare scenario where Trump destroys the traditional American presidency and transforms it into something completely different. That’s the case where Trump doesn’t do us the favour of exiting from our lives, but eliminates the presidency itself. I offer no probabilities for which is likeliest because I simply don’t know. There is one category that will surprise me the least, however. More about that later. Let’s begin with my favourite Trump departure scenario, where Trump dies in office before the end of his current term. I like this category best because it means we don’t have to endure Trump for another two years and four months. The sooner he’s gone, the better. There’s a certain kind of pundit or commentator who likes to predict Trump’s death within a certain timeframe, typically 3-6 months. I understand the impulse, however I have no idea when or if Trump will die in office. Neither does the pundit or commentator claiming they do. It’s a cheap prediction trick to make about an 80-year-old man who eats junk food and probably abuses one or more drugs, or about a man who is so universally and justifiably despised that he might get assassinated. The statistics are against him, to be sure. But statistics don’t always apply to individuals. Otherwise they cease to be statistical averages and become categorical certainties. There’s another category of pundit or commentator who says that if Trump dies in office his replacement, JD Vance, will be far, far worse. That’s absurd, of course. Nobody could possibly make a worse president than Donald John Trump. The felonious insect Trump is a psychopath and incomparable jerk. Vance is merely an incomparable jerk. When I think about Trump dying, I am reminded of the quote from Clarence Darrow: “I have never wished a man dead. I have, however, read many obituaries with great pleasure.” Then, of course, there’s the quote falsely attributed to Bette Davis: “My mother told me never to speak ill of anyone, only good. Joan Crawford is dead. Good.” Just thinking about this topic has cheered me up considerably as I write. Okay, on to the next category. The second category of Trump’s departure is Trump leaving office alive and in a peaceful and orderly manner. A Trump departure in this way could include: Trump being removed from office through impeachment or the 25th Amendment Trump resigning Trump completing his term of office on January 20, 2029, at 12 noon With the Democrats almost certainly taking back the House in November, the probability is that Trump will be impeached for an unprecedented third time. Whether or not he will be convicted by the Senate is another matter. Even with the possibility of a majority of Democrats in the Senate, brought to you by the midterm elections, we wouldn’t have the necessary two-thirds majority to ensure a conviction. But you never know. By that time, there may be enough Republicans who are sufficiently sick of Trump to convict the bastard. In any case, according to the Constitution and for what that’s worth, Trump’s last possible day in office will be January 20, 2029. By then he will be 82 years, seven months and six days old. He will be the oldest man to ever occupy the White House. He will also be the worst. I wouldn’t be surprised if, by then, his approval rating was in the low 20s, if not lower. The third way Trump could leave would be kicking and screaming. This is the way that would surprise me the least. I hope the lesson of January 6, 2021, is firmly in our memories by then. Two weeks prior to that day in 2021 Trump incited an insurrection in an effort to steal the 2020 election from President Joe Biden. With no irony intended, Trump claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him. Since every minute of Trump’s second term was far worse than any period of his first, I can’t imagine him leaving under less turbulent circumstances. If he does, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’d made some kind of deal where he can’t be prosecuted for any crime he’s committed at any point in his miserable life, and that instance would also apply to category two. The “kicking and screaming” scenario also applies if he’s impeached and convicted, or removed by the 25th amendment. But however it happens, I think we’re going to have a very tough time getting rid of him on that day, if not before. Which leads me to my fourth and final category for Trump departing the presidency. Trump could install himself as dictator for life. Let me put that another way. If it’s possible for Trump to install himself as dictator for life, I think he will. At that point, of course, America as we know it will cease to exist. The presidency as we know it will cease to exist. Trump won’t have merely refused to step down from power, he will have redefined the presidency out of existence and beyond recognition. That’s not how we want him to leave the presidency, of course. We will better understand the likelihood of this eventuality on January 3, 2027. That will be the day when Speaker of the House Mike Johnson will or will not agree to seat new incoming Democrats elected the previous November. If Johnson refuses to seat Democrats, then that will foreshadow dark days ahead, even if his efforts are unsuccessful. In any case, hang onto your hats. If Trump becomes a dictator, that would be the point when we will either be members of the illegal underground or we will have capitulated with him. I will not capitulate. I hope you don’t either, sisters and brothers, but if you do I understand. I realise these sound like brave words coming from a man living in England, but I know myself well enough to know that makes no difference. Whether or not you take me at my word is entirely up to you. In any event, under category four I don’t expect an easy ride for anyone no matter where you may live in the world or no matter how you deal with an American coup d’etat. I sincerely hope that doesn’t happen, but I can’t dismiss it as a possibility. There is a fifth possibility, where Trump finds a way to get around Constitutional term limits and runs for and wins a third term. Although that isn’t Trump leaving the presidency in any sense as defined above, it might actually qualify under the destruction of the presidency rubric. After all, I wonder if it’s possible for Trump to win another election unless it’s totally rigged, which means he has effectively become a dictator. So there you have it, sisters and brothers, the four ways in which Trump will depart the presidency. Can you think of another?