Virtual Ministry Archive

 At 7:45 tonight, Donald Trump experienced what appeared to be a serious mental health crisis while on stage campaigning for Republicans in Ohio. He had just arrived at the High School Activity Center in Vandalia, Ohio, 45 minutes late after his motorcade was forced to change its route to avoid protesters.


After making his way to the podium, he wasted no time launching into a truly disturbing speech where he told the crowd that Democrats tried to kill him and that “we’re going to put them down once and for all.” He said that Democrats rigged the elections and that the Republican Party is going to beat them, and that they would “shove it up their ass.”


He attacked the press, called Biden a “fake president,” and presented a bribe to every American over the age of 18, promising to send each one of them $5,000 if his party wins and keeps control of Congress. This was just the tip of the iceberg of the dangerous things the president said tonight.


Within minutes, it became clear that this was not going to be a regular campaign rally. As the speech went on, it only got worse as Donald Trump unraveled on live TV. Tonight marked the beginning of an even darker chapter in American History. One where the leader of the free world openly shared that he and his administration will reject, by all means possible, anything other than the outcome he wants for the midterm elections.


Trump told the crowd: “We’ve defeated every hoax and overcome every threat. Now we are on the cusp of beating the communist, socialist, radicalized lunatics and villains once and for all. We’re going to put them down once and for all.”


That is exactly what the President of the United States is saying about those he sees as a threat to his unchecked power. This includes, but is not limited to, Democrats, American citizens, journalists, and protesters. But it was the “put them down” part that is the most concerning. Most of us know that as a phrase used to mean the euthanasia of a sick or injured animal. When he added “once and for all,” he left very little room for interpretation. He was talking about ending opposition permanently.


With Donald Trump, we have to take him at his word while hoping he is just being provocative. History has already taught us how far he will go and how far others like him have gone before. Hitler did not start by rounding up his final targets and sending them to the camps. He started with the language he used and testing what he could get away with saying. He called his political opponents vermin and disease, and he told crowds at his rallies that they were a threat to the nation. The eventual horrific actions followed later.


He did not stop there. He told the crowd that Democrats had “attacked me, they’ve impeached me, they’ve arrested me, and they even tried to kill me.” He called Biden a “fake president,” still clinging to his election lie all these years later. He also said that Democrats rigged the elections and that they were “a bunch of dumb sons of bitches.” He said they, the Republicans, were going to win big and “shove it up their ass, okay?” That is the President of the United States of America, speaking from a podium with the presidential seal on it, terrified of losing and spiraling out of control.


Trump is building a narrative where he is the ultimate authority in our country. It is part of his strategy ahead of the devastating loss he expects to face during the midterms. Today he gave us a look into what that will look like and how it will play out. Part of his plan is to convince his followers that he is smarter than everyone else, and he pretty much said exactly that: “I know more about everything than anybody in this room, than anybody anywhere in the world.” He then stopped for a very quick pause, pointed at a woman sitting near the stage, and continued, “There’s a woman sitting right over there who is a housewife, but she’s very good. She’s got a natural instinct for business. She perhaps knows more than I do, but I actually don’t think so.”


And then he brought up his latest bribe. Trump told the room, and those of us watching from home, that “If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, I am going to give all adult citizens in the United States $5,000 each because we’re making so much money with the tariffs and other things.”


Every time he promises to send Americans money in exchange for their votes, we have to do the math because that is where the promise immediately falls apart. There are roughly 245 million adults in this country. That is $1.20 trillion. The president does not have the authority to just send out checks on a whim, and he certainly can’t spend more than a trillion dollars without approval. That is not even taking into account the practical side of things, like where the money would come from. Donald Trump also promised $2,000 tariff dividend checks. Those never came, and these never will either. He knows that, and he also knows that there is almost no realistic path for Republicans to hold both chambers of Congress. So the excuse and the scapegoat are already built in for when the checks are never sent. He will blame the Democrats. He will say he wanted to send the checks, but the radical left “Dumocrats” blocked him from sending them. He will use this as another reason to further divide us.


He also shared fear-based propaganda that he created in his mind about what is to come if his party loses. “If the Democrats are in control again, we’ll have another Great Depression like in the 1930s.” He said that if Democrats win, “you will end up in a 1929-style economic depression, and we will have a disaster on our hands.” He is trying to terrify the most vulnerable people in this country into voting out of fear, while also trying to bribe them with money he will not and cannot send. He is counting on them believing that this time will somehow be different and that he will actually deliver on the promises he makes.


He not only told us that he will be targeting political dissent over the next couple of years, but he also made it very clear that he is coming after the media and anyone committed to fact-based reporting. He pointed up at the press section and told the crowd, “Some of the fake news media are sitting right there.” The crowd loudly booed, with someone even screaming, “F*CK CNN!” Trump stood there grinning and smirking as he stared directly at the journalists, letting the hostility in the room build toward them. He went after Kaitlan Collins again, calling her “such an unhappy person,” and said that “she’s a young, nice person, but she never smiles.” He said, “the fake news media refuse to talk about our record-setting numbers.” The President of the United States continues to try to humiliate journalists who haven’t bent to his demands for only positive coverage. He also said, “It’s the golden age of America. Our nation is doing better now than ever before, and fake news like CNN, sitting right there, doesn’t want to run.” Then he offered us a new name for the press: “We could call the media ‘artificial media.’ That would be accurate. We could call them ‘artificial news.’ They’re artificial news, meaning fake, but I like ‘fake’ better. I made that up a long time ago, and it seems to be quite accurate.”


This is why Trump is so focused on destroying trust in the media. He needs his supporters to believe that every reporter, news outlet, and really anyone who says something Donald Trump doesn’t like is lying to them. Trump knows his numbers and polls are both terrible, so he needs to convince his supporters that the only person they can trust is him. So that it doesn’t matter what anyone else reports. He is setting the stage for what comes next. If the midterm results are not what he wants, he will say the media lied and that there was rampant fraud. He will tell his supporters that the election was stolen from them, and many will believe him. We saw what happened on January 6th, and we have watched him pardon the insurrectionists. We know Donald Trump’s part in what happened, and how he has convinced those who carried that out for him, and the next round of people like them, to think they will ultimately be protected the next time he asks people to do his dirty work for him.


The difference this time is that Donald Trump is sitting inside the White House with the power of the federal government behind him. Everything he said tonight was in preparation for what may be one of the darkest chapters in the history of our country. We got a glimpse of just how dark the next 30+ days and the months that follow could become. There were multiple moments during this rally that would have warranted serious discussions about the 25th Amendment with any other president. But things have become so normalized that we don’t even talk about that like we did even a year ago. Our country has fallen so far over the past 21 months that even the president accusing Democrats of trying to kill him or calling them “dumb sons of bitches” is no longer enough to shock us.


The big picture is that this is what we are going to see until the midterms if Donald Trump isn’t stopped. And then the worst of the Big Beautiful Bill is purposefully set to happen shortly after that, devastating everyday Americans. The months after that may very well be even worse. He is going to push everything through he possibly can before the new Congress is seated. At the same time, he will have set the tone with his radicalized followers that anybody, including the legacy media, independent journalists, and writers such as myself, are all part of the “fake news” and can’t be trusted. He will challenge every election result that does not go his way. He will say that foreign governments meddled in our elections and that the results have been manipulated. There will be court cases, and games played to try to keep the new, duly elected members of Congress from being seated.


This may be a very trying time for our country. We will get through it. We will come out on the other side. What it takes to get there is another story. And even after all of that, we are looking at a sitting-duck president at a level this country has never seen, with nothing left to hold him back and nothing left to lose. With his diminished physical and cognitive abilities, we won’t truly start to feel safe and see a path forward for this country until at least early 2029, and even then, we will be dealing with the damage for years to come.


We knew these dark times were coming. We knew it would get worse the closer we got to the midterms. Today he showed us exactly what that is going to look like. He is coming after dissent, the truth, and anyone who refuses to fall in line. But no matter what he tries to take from us, we need to remind Donald Trump and each other that we are not helpless. There are still things we can do. We can vote, and we can get louder. If you’ve been on the sidelines, this is the moment to step off them. If you’ve been scared to speak out, I understand that fear completely. I know what it costs and the threats that come with it. I’ve lived it for a year and a half, and I’m still here, and it has not slowed me down. Because I also know what silence costs, and that price is higher. It always has been, and it always will be.


I made a promise when I started writing these posts. Every time Donald Trump or his administration attacked the press, the First Amendment, or the rights of the American people, I would call it out. Today Donald Trump took his attacks even further. His public threats were meant to cause ripples of fear through all of us. They want us to hesitate the next time we go to speak, and they want us to question our next vote for a Democrat for fear that they will usher in the next Great Depression.


Tonight we resist with our voices and our money. Every time this administration attacks the First Amendment, or our right to free, fair, and fear-free elections, we respond by funding the people defending it. On these nights, I donate and subscribe to those on the right side of history who offer a paid membership. To use the overplayed line about how most of these options cost about the same as a cup of coffee, I actually live by that. I rarely buy coffee outside the house anymore because I would much rather give that money to someone fighting for our country anyway.


Those of you who have been reading these posts for a while know how this goes. If we are able, and it will not cause a financial hardship, we put our money to good use. We support our local, state, and federal candidates. The other side is throwing a lot of money at these elections, so our candidates can always use more funds. We donate to nonprofits that are defending our Constitution and the most vulnerable in our communities. That includes organizations that are challenging Donald Trump’s abuses of power in court. And we also support the people taking a stand to deliver the truth about what is happening in this country under extreme threat from Donald Trump and the federal government. Thank you all for supporting me in this way. It is how I’m able to dedicate my life to this work and write these posts every night. I am grateful that I can be a part of this fight with your support.


But like I always say and will until the end of time, I’m also asking you to think beyond just my voice. Think about every writer, journalist, podcaster, and other independent outlet that you turn to when you need the truth about what is happening in this country. Think about the people writing and creating content day in and day out, without breaks, because they care about our country and the generations we will be leaving it to. Donald Trump just told us what comes next, and we need to be prepared now so that our truth tellers are funded to survive it. The most powerful thing we can do right now is make sure the people refusing to be silent can keep going. Every paid subscription to an independent voice is a vote against everything Donald Trump said today and does tomorrow.


Donald Trump didn’t have his meltdown at the podium today because the future looks good for him or the Republican Party. He is waging these attacks because he is scared. He is scared of what happens to him next. He knows the resistance is just growing and that his deficits are as well.


He knows that he is in a weak position, and nothing makes him feel more threatened than that. But while he was standing on that stage trying to make the rest of us feel the same fear he is, a group of musicians was standing in front of a sold-out crowd of close to 20,000, reminding us just how much power we still have. Just 25 miles from the White House, Tom Morello of Rage Against the Machine’s Power to the People Festival in Columbia, Maryland, brought together some very powerful voices in American music for a day built around the very things Trump is trying to destroy: freedom, justice, equality, and people coming together and using their voices for something bigger than themselves.


Performers included Bruce Springsteen, the Foo Fighters, Dave Matthews, Joan Baez, Public Enemy, Killer Mike, Cypress Hill, Serj Tankian, Brittany Howard, Dropkick Murphys, Jack Black, The Linda Lindas, and Shepard Fairey. This wasn’t just a music festival. This was a show of resistance.


Donald Trump wants us to think that the fight is over and that we have already lost our country. But we know the truth. We know that he is only going to these lengths because he knows what is coming and he is desperately trying to stop it. In 31 days, we are going to come together and show him just how much power we still have, and he is going to finally start to face the consequences of what he has put our country through. That is why I still have hope for America. And you should, too.



how many billions has he gotten from everyone has to be at least 300b I get it all but jeeze lmao


 
















 

TRAINING myself to have like 5-8 nicotine gums a day otherwise I will chew 6 at a time lmao I just set an hourly clock for every 2 hrs and just suffer even though I want more done it so many times anyway


 

Anne Rice, the author of Interview with the Vampire, had spent more than a decade back in the Catholic Church when she quit Christianity in 2010, and told the world why: "In the name of Christ, I refuse to be anti-gay." She had written two novels about the life of Jesus. Among the church actions that drove her out, she cited the US bishops putting money into fighting same-sex marriage. "I quit Christianity and being Christian," she wrote. Her faith in Christ stayed; the institution didn't. Rice, who would have turned 85 today, had gay readers from the start. They read her vampires as "a sustained gay allegory," she said, and she lived in San Francisco's Castro long before her son Christopher came out. When he did, she said, "I did not love him one drop less." She later put it plainly: "I think I have a gay sensibility and I feel like I'm gay, because I've always transcended gender."


 

they would not be independent they would simply join the USA and it would start a cascade effect across canada


 

THEY ARE LOOKING TO invade other solar systems and PLANETS its not countries as you are made to believe so USA invading IRAN or CUBA OR CANADA almost seems unfathomable since we have galactical decree and the EMPIRE is the NAZI empire whom achieved time travel and anti gravity travel when you hear about countries think other realities or planets


 

TRUMP/DUMP is hitler in another meatskin FUCKEN DUH?

best they can come up with is a sideways view of an arabic twink?


 

When I was at the U of A back in the 2000s, 11003 87 Ave was a frat house in Garneau. There was a soundproofed room upstairs and allegedly the pigs that lived there "jokingly" referred to it as "The R*pe Room". A few friends and I crashed a party there once with the sole intention of stealing booze. They had a Culligan water cooler filled with Everclear and grape juice, which if I remember correctly they lost the phonetic "g" when referring to. One night, Frank Derek Pirker and I snuck in through the back door, robbed the fridge blind, got chased down the street by four of them, hid in the bushes, and laughed our asses off as they ran by. Those men are lawyers, doctors, gynaecologists, psychiatrists, anesthesiologists, surgeons, and fathers now. Let that sink in. If you lived at 11003 87 Ave in the 2000s, and you kept your mouth shut, you know who you are. There is a woman out there somewhere who is finally mustering the courage after long years of waiting to bring you the justice you deserve and I hope you are scared shitless. Verdicts are one thing, but the court of public opinion never sleeps. This story just keeps repeating itself. Nearly 20 years later, 57 men at Cornell University on a Snapchat thread kept quiet, did nothing, and looked the other way at one of these exact parties in one of these exact houses. Why do we STILL allow these abuse factories to exist on campuses and in our communities? If the argument is, "don't go to a frathouse, they're dangerous and you should know better", then why are students condoned, allowed and permitted to be members? Why (and maybe how) are these places still allowed to exist? Fuck frathouses and fuck fratboys, at Dartmouth College, at Cornell, at the University of Alberta, in Halifax, or anywhere. Unbelievable.


 


 


 



 


 



 On September 16, 2026, the day the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, an Iranian politician posted a math equation on social media.

His name is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. He is the speaker of Iran’s Parliament.
Millions of people saw the post, but most did not understand what they were looking at.
The math equation was a copy of the formula that American central bankers use to decide whether to raise or lower interest rates.
Ghalibaf had slightly altered the formula.
He added two new variables to the equation, both named after waterways that Iran and its allies control.
Although the post was clearly a cheeky jab at the US administration, it was not necessarily a joke.
It was a message - about who sets the price of money in America. The price of your mortgage, your car loan and the diesel in every truck that stocks your grocery store.
One week after Ghalibaf’s post, diesel hit $6.53 a gallon, the highest price ever recorded in the United States.
To understand his message, you first need to understand the formula he was mocking.
The formula
In 1993, Stanford economist John Taylor wrote a formula for central banks. It became known as the Taylor Rule, and central bankers and Wall Street have used it ever since.
The rule asks two questions. First, are prices rising faster than the central bank wants? Second, is the economy running hotter than normal? If the answer to either question is yes, the rule says to raise interest rates. If the answer is no, it says to lower them.
For reference, here it is.
i = r* + π + 0.5(π − π*) + 0.5(y − y*)
Now translated, in English:
Interest rate = Neutral rate + Inflation + ½ × (Inflation − Target) + ½ × (Economy’s gap)
Interest rate: the rate the central bank should charge.
Neutral rate: the "in-between" interest rate that neither pushes the economy forward nor holds it back.
Inflation: how fast prices are rising right now.
Target: how fast the central bank wants prices to rise, usually 2% a year.
Economy’s gap: whether the country is making and selling more than it comfortably can, or less. More means businesses are straining to keep up. Less means businesses are cutting back and people are losing jobs.
If that lost you, don’t worry - the logic is simple, and here is the outcome:
If prices are rising too fast, the Fed will raise interest rates, making borrowing more expensive. When borrowing costs more, people and companies borrow less, spend less, and prices cool down.
Now Ghalibaf kept all of that in his equation. But he added two more parts.
He labelled the first new piece “SOH,” which stands for the Strait of Hormuz. He labelled the second “BEM,” which stands for Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow strait at the southern end of the Red Sea.
He mockingly called it the “Straits Taylor Rule.”
Below the formula, he wrote, “You can’t 25bp a chokepoint.”
Ok. What does all this mean?
Part of today’s high oil price is driven by fear. Buyers pay extra for every barrel because they do not know whether the Strait of Hormuz will be open tomorrow. Iran controls that fear; therefore, Iran controls that extra cost.
This is the “SOH risk premium” he is referring to, and in his words, “We set it.”
So what is the connection between the SOH risk premium on oil prices and Ghalibaf’s claim that Iran now holds a hand on the direction of America’s interest rates?
Here it is: Higher oil prices = higher everything prices.
The Federal Reserve raises rates to tame rising prices, assuming those prices come from too much cheap money being lent into the economy. But if inflation is caused by high energy prices due to restricted oil supply, raising rates won’t help.
If the Fed raises rates every time oil prices jump (to combat rising prices, as per the Taylor Rule), then whoever controls oil prices controls the Fed.
And the cheapest way for Iran to move oil prices is to make oil harder to ship.
That’s what Ghalibaf meant when he said: “You can’t 25bp a chokepoint”.
He was claiming that because Iran influences the oil price, Iran influences the inflation rate and therefore takes the power out of the hands of the Federal Reserve.
The Fed is using a tool built for too much borrowing to fight a problem caused by too little oil.
Now let’s look at the track record.
Leading up to the Fed’s September 16 interest rate decision, tankers were attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and a Saudi refinery at Jizan was hit. The Iran-backed Houthi militia seized the coast along Bab el-Mandeb, and drones launched from Iraq forced Saudi Arabia to shut its main oil pipeline. Oil climbed back above $100 a barrel that week. On September 15, the day before the decision, another tanker was attacked near the entrance to the strait.
The same thing happened before the Fed’s July meeting, when Houthi missiles struck two Saudi tankers, and oil touched $100.
The Fed’s next decision is due on October 28. Remember that date. I would not be surprised to see attacks spike again.
Can Iran Actually Influence the Federal Reserve’s Decisions?
Maybe.
Just for fun, let’s take Ghalibaf at his word and walk his plan all the way to the end. We will break it down into four steps.
Step one: expensive oil creates high prices
The United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, 2026. Within days, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed.
In September, the Iran-backed Houthi militia seized the island that sits in the middle of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, rendering it closed as well.
Those are the two waterways in Ghalibaf’s formula, and together they guard the Gulf’s way out and its main way around.
Hormuz is the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf. The biggest detour is a Saudi pipeline that carries oil across the desert to the Red Sea, and tankers taking that oil to Asia must then sail through Bab el-Mandeb. Whoever controls both straits can block the front door and the back door at the same time.
Now here is the point.
Oil is refined into diesel, and diesel fuels America. Diesel-powered trucks carry about 73% of all the freight in the United States. Before the war, diesel cost about $3.76 a gallon. By the week of September 21, it cost $6.53. That is an increase of roughly 74%.
Farmers feel it first. Tractors and combines run on diesel, and the fall harvest (right now) is the busiest time of the year.
The Gulf also makes much of the world’s fertilizer. The Middle East ships nearly a quarter of the world’s urea, the most common nitrogen fertilizer. Between February and April, urea prices jumped 80%.
Airplanes run on jet fuel, which comes from the same barrel. Jet fuel prices roughly doubled after the war began. By August, airfares were 23% higher than a year earlier.
Why does all of this matter?
Add it up, and you get the August inflation report.
Prices across the economy were 3.4% higher than a year earlier. Energy prices were 16% higher.
Step two: high prices create a rate hike
Now the Taylor Rule does exactly what it was built to do. Prices are rising faster than the Fed wants, so the rule says to raise interest rates.
On September 16, 2026, the Fed did that. It raised rates for the first time since 2023.
This is the trap Ghalibaf was pointing at.
A rate hike works by making people borrow less and spend less. But Americans aren't paying more for diesel because lending markets are too cheap. They are paying more because oil cannot get out of the Persian Gulf.
Once again: The Fed is using a tool built for too much borrowing to fight a problem caused by too little oil.
Step three: the rate hike hits your wallet
A rate hike does not fix the oil shortage, but it does reach every borrower in the country.
On February 26, 2026, two days before the war began, the average 30-year mortgage rate in America was 5.98%. It was the first time in three and a half years that rates had dipped below 6%. By September 24, the average rate was 7.03%.
Here is what that means for a real family. On a $400,000 mortgage, the monthly payment at 5.98% is about $2,393. At 7.03%, it is about $2,669. That is $276 more every month, or more than $3,300 a year, for the same house.
The same thing happens to car loans, business loans and credit cards. So the family already paying more for diesel, groceries, and flights is now also paying more to borrow.
Step four: the rate hike hits the government’s wallet
The biggest borrower in America is the American government.
When the government spends more than it collects in taxes, it borrows the difference. It borrows by selling IOUs called Treasury bonds. A bond is a promise: lend the government money today, and it will pay you back later with interest.
On September 21, 2026, America owed about $40.1 trillion. Every rate hike makes that borrowing more expensive.
The bill is already enormous. In the first eleven months of its 2026 budget year, the United States spent about $1.05 trillion on interest on its debt. It only spent $833 billion on its military over the same months. America now spends more on paying its lenders than on defending itself.
The historian Niall Ferguson has a name for this. He calls it Ferguson’s Law: spending more on debt than on defence signals a receding empire. Spain crossed it in the 1500s. France crossed it in the 1780s, just before its revolution. The Ottoman Empire crossed it in the 1870s. Britain crossed it between the two world wars. Each was a great power, and each lost that standing shortly after they began spending more money on debt servicing than on defending themself.
By Ferguson’s count, America crossed the same line in 2024.
Where the path ends
Follow the steps in a circle.
Iran makes oil harder to ship.
Expensive oil becomes expensive diesel
Expensive diesel becomes inflation.
Inflation pushes the Fed to raise rates.
Higher rates make the government’s debt more expensive, so the government has to borrow even more to pay its own interest.
At some point, the Fed has to choose how the circle ends.
It can keep raising rates until something breaks - the housing market, the stock market or the bond market itself. Or it can stop raising rates while prices keep climbing, and print money to fund itself when other countries stop buying its bonds. That path protects the bond market, but it makes the dollar worth less, and prices climb even faster.
That is Iran’s bet. It is a serious bet.
But Iran is not the only side with a plan.
What could prove Iran wrong
If we now understand Iran’s agenda, we should try to understand America’s.
Iran is trying to break America through its debt. America is trying to win through energy dominance.
In February 2025, President Trump created a National Energy Dominance Council. It tasked the secretaries of the Interior and Energy with pushing American oil, gas and power production as high as it can go (drill baby drill).
Washington never says the goal out loud, but I think it is plain: America does not want to be one supplier among many. It wants to be the supplier the world cannot do without.
Trump said as much before he took office. In December 2024, he told the European Union to fix its trade gap with America “by the large-scale purchase of our oil and gas,” or face tariffs.
In 2025, the United States produced a record 13.6 million barrels of crude oil a day. That’s more than Russia and the Saudi’s combined. America has also become the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas.
But look at what has happened to everyone else’s energy production in 2026...
On March 18, Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field. Iran answered by firing missiles at Ras Laffan in Qatar, one of the largest natural gas export sites on Earth. The strikes knocked out about 17% of Qatar’s export capacity, and repairs are expected to take years.
In September, drones launched from Iraq hit Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, the main route for Saudi oil to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia shut it down.
In Russia, Ukrainian drones hit an oil refinery about once every three days during the first eight months of 2026, according to the International Energy Agency. By June, Russia’s refineries were running about 30% below a year earlier.
Iran’s own exports are being choked off on purpose. In September, America’s Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said the biggest job of the U.S. military in the region right now is to “stop the export of any Iranian crude.”
That’s a lot of energy offline. Who is stepping in to fill the gap?
In April 2026, American crude oil exports hit a record 5.6 million barrels a day, up 21% from the previous record. In the first half of the year, American gas exports rose 23%, and exports to Asia more than doubled. Europe is expected to get about two-thirds of its imported gas from America this year.
The most striking change is in Qatar.
By the end of July, the state company QatarEnergy had bought 33 shiploads of American gas this year to fulfill contracts with its buyers in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, India and Bangladesh. One of the world’s great gas sellers has become a customer of America.
Long-term contracts are being signed, too.
In July 2025, the European Union promised to buy $750 billion of American energy by 2028.
On September 1, 2026, following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the United States signed a deal with Venezuela’s interim government that gives an American-led company 100-year rights to 17 of the country’s oil fields - allegedly the biggest on earth.
Here is the theory in one sentence:
America does not need to win a bond war if it can make the whole world depend on American energy, priced in American dollars.
Important to note: America did not fire the missiles that destroyed the global energy infrastructure.
Iran hit Qatar. Ukraine hit Russia. Militias in Iraq hit Saudi Arabia.
In March, America bombed military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, where about 90 percent of Iran’s oil is loaded, but deliberately left the oil terminal standing. Trump said he spared it “for reasons of decency.”
I think it gave America something more useful than a burning oil terminal. It gave America plausible deniability.
A strategy like this only works if America is never seen bombing the world’s energy supply itself. America only has to be the one country that gets stronger every time someone else’s energy burns.
So far, that is exactly what has happened.
Why each weapon feeds the other
This is where the two wars collide. It's a bit weird, and worth thinking about.
Iran’s attacks make oil expensive. Expensive oil drives customers away from the Gulf and into America’s arms.
So every tanker Iran threatens helps America’s energy war.
But America’s energy war keeps oil expensive, too.
Every rival supply that stays offline keeps energy prices high, and high prices keep inflation high. High inflation tells the Fed to raise rates, and higher rates make America’s debt more expensive to carry.
So every barrel America sells at a high price helps Iran’s bond war.
America will never say it wants expensive oil. It says the opposite. But expensive oil is what happens when the world’s other suppliers are knocked offline.
So…
Iran is creating expensive oil overtly. America is creating expensive oil covertly.
What’s really going on?
Both countries are creating expensive oil, but they want different things from it.
Iran needs oil to stay expensive for as long as possible. Every month of high prices is another month of high interest rates on America’s $40 trillion debt.
America only needs oil to stay expensive for a while. As long as rival suppliers are knocked offline, the world signs long contracts with Texas, Alaska and Venezuela (via America). Once those customers are locked in, America no longer needs expensive oil. It needs the opposite. Cheaper oil would cool inflation, let the Fed lower rates and shrink the interest bill.
That is what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was describing on August 8, when he said that over the next two years the Strait of Hormuz would become “just another body of water.” If most of the world’s energy flows around the strait instead of through it, the fear built into every barrel disappears, and Iran loses the price it claims to set.
So this is a race between two clocks. America’s clock is measured in energy contracts. Iran’s clock is measured in Fed meetings.
Back to the formula
Go back to Ghalibaf’s equation. His two additions, SOH and BEM, only matter as long as the world’s oil has to pass through those two straits. America’s whole plan is to make those straits worthless.
The Fed makes its next decision on October 28. Watch the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea in the weeks before it. If a tanker is hit or a pipeline goes quiet, and oil jumps just as the Fed sits down to vote, you will know Ghalibaf’s formula is still working.
Honest question - let me know in the comments: what am I missing?