JPMorgan's senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi published a report titled "Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm" this week warning that global food inflation will accelerate from 2.8% today to 5% by early 2027, driven by two simultaneous crises. The US-Iran war has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which 30% of global fertilizer exports normally pass, cutting tanker traffic by over 95% since February. Urea fertilizer prices have risen 20 to 60% in months. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization chief economist Maximo Torero separately warned a severe global food crisis could materialize within six to twelve months, stating farmers are already choosing to plant less or switch to lower-yield crops because inputs are unaffordable. A historic super El Nino is simultaneously developing, with NOAA projecting a 69% probability of an extreme event by late 2026. JPMorgan warns the combined effect could roughly double the inflationary impact of either crisis alone. Exposure is concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, West Africa, and East Africa, where food already consumes the largest share of household income. The 2.1 billion people already experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity have no buffer. China has begun stockpiling grain and fertilizer. No globally coordinated strategic reserve for fertilizer exists. Sources: JPMorgan Chase, UN FAO, World Economic Forum, NPR, Council on Foreign Relations