BREAKING: J.P. Morgan’s chief economist warns that there is now a staggering 40% chance of a full-blown recession thanks to Donald Trump — as well as a profound risk to the country’s status as an investment destination. This is a five-alarm fire for the economy… "Where we stand now is with a heightened concern about the U.S. economy," said Bruce Kasman, the bank's top global economist. He had previously pegged the recession odds at 30% at the start of the year, but Trump’s disastrous tariffs and unpredictable behavior have thrown the markets into chaos. Kasman warned that the recession risk could hit 50% or higher if Trump implements the reciprocal tariffs that he’s floated. "If we would continue down this road of what would be more disruptive, business-unfriendly policies, I think the risks on that recession front would go up," Kasman said. He predicted that investors could lose faith in U.S. assets due to Trump’s unpredictable — and at times utterly inscrutable — governance style. Such trust takes decades to build and might never return if lost. "The U.S. seems to have established itself as a place where people can be comfortable about rule of law ... comfortable about the integrity of information flow, and they can be comfortable that the government isn't going to be, in unexpected ways, getting involved in the rules of the game," said Kasman. "The term which has been in place for a very long time is that we have 'exorbitant privilege'. That we end up paying a much lower cost for financing our deficits and debt, we have much greater capital flows and attractiveness of the dollar and assets, because of these things," he added. "The risk that that stuff starts to come under pressure and becomes a structural issue in the markets is not something I would, by any means, underplay,” said Kasman. Economists at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have downgraded their forecasts for U.S. GDP growth to 1.7% and 1.5% respectfully. On top of that, 95% of economists polled by Reuterslast in Canada, Mexico, and the United States said that recession risks in their domestic economies have spiked due to Trump’s tariffs. Trump supporters thought that they were voting for a new “Golden Age.” Instead, they might end up with one of the worst economic collapses in American history.